Churn prediction
Churn prediction estimates the probability that a given customer will stop paying within a defined horizon, using behavioural, transactional and service signals. It produces a ranking of risk; on its own it changes nothing, because a score is not an intervention.
Why it matters for ARPU
Most enterprises already have a churn model and still lose the same customers. The gap is decisioning: choosing which at-risk customer gets which action, at what cost, and proving it worked.
Related terms
Churn rateChurn rate is the share of customers, or of revenue, lost in a period.Propensity modelA propensity model estimates the probability that a customer takes an action, such as buying, upgrading or cancelling.Uplift modelAn uplift model estimates the change in outcome caused by treating a customer, rather than the outcome itself.Save offerA save offer is an incentive presented to a customer who is about to leave: a discount, a pause, a plan downgrade or a service remedy.