Save offer
Also called: Retention offer
A save offer is an incentive presented to a customer who is about to leave: a discount, a pause, a plan downgrade or a service remedy. Its value depends entirely on whether it changes behaviour for someone who would otherwise have gone.
Why it matters for ARPU
Save offers are the classic case for uplift modelling: given to customers who were staying anyway, they are a pure margin transfer that lowers ARPU while looking like a retention success.
Related terms
Uplift modelAn uplift model estimates the change in outcome caused by treating a customer, rather than the outcome itself.Voluntary vs involuntary churnVoluntary churn is a customer deciding to leave.Contribution margin per userContribution margin per user is revenue per user minus the variable costs of serving that user: delivery, payment fees, support, content or bandwidth, and any incentive granted.Holdout groupA holdout is a randomly selected set of customers deliberately excluded from an action, kept as the counterfactual.