Uplift model
Also called: Incremental response model, Net lift model
An uplift model estimates the change in outcome caused by treating a customer, rather than the outcome itself. It separates the persuadable from those who would convert regardless and those the contact would annoy, and it requires randomised data to train.
Why it matters for ARPU
It is the difference between spending an incentive budget where it changes behaviour and spending it where behaviour was already going to happen. On save offers, that gap is often the whole margin.
Related terms
Propensity modelA propensity model estimates the probability that a customer takes an action, such as buying, upgrading or cancelling.IncrementalityIncrementality is the portion of an outcome that would not have happened without the action.Save offerA save offer is an incentive presented to a customer who is about to leave: a discount, a pause, a plan downgrade or a service remedy.Holdout groupA holdout is a randomly selected set of customers deliberately excluded from an action, kept as the counterfactual.