Propensity model
A propensity model estimates the probability that a customer takes an action, such as buying, upgrading or cancelling. It answers who is likely, not who is persuadable, so targeting on propensity alone systematically spends budget on customers who needed no persuasion.
Why it matters for ARPU
Propensity is the right input for eligibility and prioritisation, and the wrong input for deciding who receives an incentive.
Related terms
Uplift modelAn uplift model estimates the change in outcome caused by treating a customer, rather than the outcome itself.Churn predictionChurn prediction estimates the probability that a given customer will stop paying within a defined horizon, using behavioural, transactional and service signals.Next best actionNext best action is the single intervention that maximises expected value for a specific customer at a specific moment, chosen across every available option including doing nothing.Feature storeA feature store computes, versions and serves the model inputs used in training and in production, guaranteeing that both see the same definition of a feature.