Time to churn
Time to churn is the expected remaining tenure of a customer, derived from a survival model rather than a binary risk score. It converts risk into a schedule, telling a system how urgent an intervention is and how long it has to work.
Why it matters for ARPU
Two customers with identical risk scores can need opposite treatments if one is leaving next week and the other next quarter. Urgency is what makes retention budgets efficient.
Related terms
Survival analysisSurvival analysis models time until an event, handling customers who have not churned yet as censored rather than discarding them.Churn predictionChurn prediction estimates the probability that a given customer will stop paying within a defined horizon, using behavioural, transactional and service signals.Retention curveA retention curve plots the share of a cohort still active against time since acquisition.ArbitrationArbitration is the step that resolves competing candidate actions for the same customer into one decision, ranking them by expected value under constraints such as contact limits, budget, fairness and business priority.