Hypothesis
A hypothesis is a falsifiable statement linking an action to a revenue outcome for a defined population: if we do X for segment Y, metric Z moves by roughly N because of mechanism M. It is written before the experiment runs and is kept whether it is confirmed or refuted.
Why it matters for ARPU
Hypotheses are the unit of learning in growth science. A team that writes them can compound knowledge across quarters; a team that ships tactics cannot explain why ARPU moved.
Related terms
SignalA signal is an observed change in customer behaviour, product state, payment health or market context that carries information about future revenue.Candidate actionA candidate action is one specific intervention eligible for one specific customer at one moment: an offer, a message, a price, a plan change, a support intervention or deliberately doing nothing.ExperimentAn experiment is a controlled release of a candidate action against a randomised holdout, sized in advance so the result can distinguish a real effect from noise.Hypothesis provenanceHypothesis provenance is the complete, inspectable chain behind a decision: which signals raised it, which analysis sized it, who or what wrote the hypothesis, which experiment tested it, and what the causal read-out was.