The Markin ARPU report for B2C enterprisesRead now
MARKIN

COMPARE/Markin and your stack

Markin + Amplitude: from behavioural insight to revenue decisions

+17–35% ARPU against holdoutObserved range across Markin deployments, measured on treated cohorts.

Amplitude is product analytics with experimentation and recommendations: it observes behaviour, builds cohorts, runs feature experiments and can recommend content toward a predictive goal. Markin sits above it and converts that observation into sized revenue decisions per customer, which action, in which channel, at what cost, with a holdout attached. Amplitude shows what is happening; Markin decides what to do about it, in revenue terms.

What is at stake

A decision layer is not a tool line item. It moves ARPU on the whole base, every month.

Installed base

2.5M

customers at $16 ARPU / month

Addressable revenue

$192.0M

per year, reachable base

Verified ARPU uplift

+17% to +35% ARPU

on treated cohorts, against holdout

What that is worth

$32.6M – $67.2M

incremental revenue per year

Measured on treated cohorts against a randomised holdout, read over a full measurement window rather than the first weeks. Anonymised range across Markin deployments in large B2C bases; your own holdout is the number that decides. The figures above apply that range to the reachable share of the base on this page's assumptions; they are arithmetic, not a forecast for your business.

Run it on your own numbers

What your stack does today.

01

Amplitude

A product analytics platform with feature experimentation and content recommendations: behavioural insight, cohorts, A/B tests and AutoML item recommendations toward a predictive goal.

02

Markin, the decision + execution layer

A layer that turns behavioural signal into sized revenue decisions per customer, selecting the treatment with the highest expected incremental value and assigning a control group.

Side by side

The differences that change outcomes.

DimensionAmplitudeMarkin, the decision + execution layer
Question it answersWhat is happening in the product, and which feature variation or item performs?Given what we see, which revenue action is worth taking for this customer, and what is it worth?
Primary inputInstrumented events, user properties, experiment variants, predictive goals.Behaviour and cohorts from analytics, outcomes, margins, costs, contact history, constraints.
Primary outputBehavioural analysis, cohorts, experiment significance, ranked recommendations.A ranked, sized decision per customer, including hold, pushed into the channels that can act on it.
Usual ownerProduct, analytics and experimentation.Growth, data science and revenue leadership.
How it's measuredSignificance on the experiment metric; recommendation take rate and relevance.Incremental revenue and ARPU against a holdout.

The unsolved part

What stays unsolved when analytics is running well

A mature Amplitude setup shows exactly what is happening and tests features well. Insight does not decide itself: turning 'users who do X churn more' into 'who to save, with what, at what cost, and who to leave alone' is a separate job, and it is normally done in a planning meeting and a spreadsheet.

  • A cohort describes a population; it does not attach a revenue value, a margin or a cost per intervention to each customer in it.
  • An experiment proves a feature works on a metric; it does not decide who should receive the rolled-out feature, or who should be held.
  • Recommendations maximise a predicted engagement goal, not incremental revenue net of contact cost, so the highest-relevance item is not always the highest-value action.
  • Holdout groups measure the program's combined lift, not the incremental revenue of each commercial decision as it is made.

The actual difference

Markin is not another decisioning engine.

Markin is not a decisioning engine. A decisioning engine ranks actions a human already defined. Markin works like a data science and growth team: it forms its own hypotheses about why ARPU is stuck, marketing, product, pricing or technical, sizes them, executes them inside the systems you already run, and reads each one against a holdout.

 A decisioning engineMarkin
Where the hypothesis comes fromA human authors it. The engine chooses between options someone already approved.Markin authors it. It reads the base, finds where revenue is leaking or unclaimed, and writes the hypothesis itself.
What it is allowed to questionMessage, offer, channel, timing, inside the campaign surface it was given.Anything that moves ARPU: onboarding friction, pricing and packaging, a feature nobody adopts, a payment failure spike, a broken deeplink.
Who does the analysisYour analysts, before and after. The engine optimises; it does not investigate.Markin does the analysis. Sizing, segment definition, experiment design and readout are automated end to end.
Where it stopsAt the recommendation. Someone still has to build and launch it.It launches. Markin executes inside your existing platforms and product surfaces, then closes the loop on the result.
ThroughputAs many hypotheses as your roadmap has room for, typically a handful per quarter.Hundreds in parallel, every one carrying a control group.
What happens when it is wrongThe programme keeps running until someone reviews it.It is retired automatically. Failing to beat control is a normal, cheap outcome.

A decisioning engine picks the best action from a list you wrote. Markin writes the list, and runs it in your stack.

Hypothesis space

Everything a human growth scientist would look at.

Most growth problems are not message problems. Markin is not restricted to the campaign surface: if something is holding ARPU back, it is in scope, and it gets tested the same way.

Marketing

The classic surface, but chosen per customer rather than per segment, and always against a holdout.

  • Which offer this specific customer is worth making
  • Channel and timing chosen per person, not per campaign
  • Contact pressure and fatigue arbitrated across every programme
  • Win-back economics: who is worth a discount and who is not

Product

Where the customer actually experiences the value, and where most silent revenue loss happens.

  • Onboarding steps that lose customers before first value
  • A feature with high retention correlation that half the base never discovers
  • Paywall and upgrade prompt placement
  • In-product surfaces used as a treatment arm, not just email and push

Commercial

Pricing, packaging and the shape of the offer itself, tested rather than argued about.

  • Plan and bundle structure by cohort
  • Discount depth against margin, not against conversion alone
  • Annual versus monthly framing per customer
  • Dunning and involuntary churn recovery sequences

Technical health

Anomalies nobody asked it to look for. This is the category no decisioning engine covers.

  • A checkout error rate that rose on one device and one region
  • Payment failures concentrated in a single issuer or method
  • A broken deeplink quietly killing a high-value journey
  • Latency or delivery degradation eating conversion before any message does

Think of Markin as a data science and growth team that never sleeps: it investigates, forms hypotheses, ships them into your own stack and proves each one against a control group, at a volume no human team can reach.

Their decisioning layer

What Amplitude decides — and where it stops.

Amplitude is product analytics with an experimentation and recommendations layer. It observes behaviour, builds cohorts, runs feature experiments and can recommend content toward a predictive goal. It does not size the revenue opportunity behind the behaviour or decide cross-channel actions in margin and cost terms.

Products referenced: Amplitude Analytics, Amplitude Experiment, Recommendations (Activation), Personalization, Holdout groups

What it optimises

Documented boundaries

  • Amplitude's holdout groups measure the long-term, combined lift of an experimentation program as a whole, not the incremental revenue of a per-customer commercial decision across channels.

    Vendor docsAmplitude docs, Holdout groups
  • The optimisation unit is an experiment metric or a content recommendation toward a predictive goal. Revenue at stake, margin and contact cost per customer are not part of the recommendation decision.

    Vendor docsAmplitude docs, Build a recommendation

What the evidence actually says

Where Markin is different.

Observes and tests; Markin decides the commercial action

Amplitude answers 'what is happening, and which feature variation wins'. Markin answers 'which revenue action is worth taking for this customer, and what is it worth', turning observation into a decision.

From a metric to a revenue decision

A recommendation maximises a predicted goal; a Markin decision maximises expected incremental revenue net of margin and contact cost, which is why hold is a legitimate output.

Per-customer decision across the estate

Amplitude cohorts and experiments group users. Markin produces one sized decision per customer, across every channel, and reports it against a holdout, not an experiment metric.

Architecture

How the two run together

Step 01

Context in

Markin reads behavioural context where it already lives, Amplitude events and cohorts, warehouse, CDP, billing, plus outcome history. Observation becomes one of the inputs to the decision, not the output.

Step 02

Decision

Markin generates and sizes revenue opportunities, ranks them per customer, chooses a treatment and assigns a control group. The output is one decision per customer, with an expected value attached.

Step 03

Activation into channels

The chosen decision is written back as user attributes or triggered events, so engagement and lifecycle channels act on it. Where a feature needs validation, the decision can feed an Amplitude Experiment as targeting.

The last step is execution, not a hand-off. Markin does not email a recommendation to someone who then has to build it: it launches the treatment inside Amplitude and your product surfaces directly, with the holdout attached, and reads the result itself.

The loop

Execution is a step in the loop, not a hand-off.

  1. 01

    Observe

    Markin reads the behavioural, transactional and product signal you already collect, continuously.

  2. 02

    Hypothesise

    It writes the hypothesis itself, marketing, product, commercial or technical, and states the expected direction.

  3. 03

    Size

    Each opportunity is ranked by expected value, so the queue is ordered by money rather than by opinion.

  4. 04

    Design

    Segment, treatment, guardrails and a randomised holdout are set before anything ships.

  5. 05

    Execute

    It launches inside the systems you already run, your engagement platform, your product surfaces, your APIs. Nothing waits on a build queue.

  6. 06

    Read

    Results are measured against the holdout over a full window, so novelty is not mistaken for effect.

  7. 07

    Scale or retire

    What beats control is scaled across the base. What does not is switched off automatically.

Where Markin fits

Not a replacement. A growth-science team on top.

Markin does not replace analytics or experiments. It turns what Amplitude observes into per-customer revenue decisions with a holdout attached, and acts in the channels that can move revenue, including customers a feature experiment never reaches.

Insight becomes a decision, not a deck

A behavioural finding is converted into a sized opportunity and a chosen treatment per customer, so the insight leaves the meeting and reaches the customer.

Recommendations are ranked by revenue, not relevance

Treatments are selected on expected incremental revenue net of margin and cost, so the highest-value action wins the contact even when it is not the most relevant item.

Measured against holdout, by default

Every decision carries a control group and reports incremental ARPU, rather than a significance read on a feature metric or a program-level lift.

Operating model

The constraint is not ideas. It is how many you can test.

 Today, with AmplitudeWith Markin on top
Revenue hypotheses tested per quarter4 to 8, whatever the roadmap had room forHundreds, generated and run in parallel
What can be hypothesised aboutMessages, offers and audiences, the campaign surfaceMarketing, product, pricing and technical health alike
From decision to live in the channelA ticket, a build queue, a release windowMarkin launches it in your existing platforms itself
Time from idea to a result you trust6 to 10 weeks of analysis, build and readoutDays, because sizing and design are automated
Share of decisions with a control groupThe flagship programmes, when there is timeEvery decision, by default
Coverage of the baseTop segments and the customers a rule caughtOne decision per customer, across the whole base
Cost of testing the 500th hypothesisAnother analyst, another quarterEffectively zero
What the team spends its time onPulling data, building lists, reconciling reportsJudgement: constraints, economics, what to scale

Markin does not replace your data science team. It removes the ceiling on how much of the base that team can act on, and how fast it finds out whether it worked.

What Markin does not replace.

To be explicit about scope, because procurement will ask:

  • Markin does not replace Amplitude Analytics, dashboards, funnels or cohort building.
  • Markin does not run feature experiments or replace Amplitude Experiment's stats engine or holdout groups.
  • Markin is not a content recommendation engine; it decides commercial actions in revenue terms.
  • Markin does not manage event instrumentation or data governance.
  • Markin does not sit beside Amplitude making suggestions. It drives it, the action is launched there, in the system your team already knows, and the result comes back into the loop.

Evidence standard

Most of this category reports its own lift.

None of the major engagement, CDP or personalisation vendors publishes an independently verified uplift figure for its decisioning product. Where numbers exist, they come from vendor-commissioned studies or single-customer case studies with no disclosed holdout methodology. The most rigorous public research in the category is not flattering to anyone, including us, which is exactly why we build against it.

How Markin holds itself to it

  • Every decision Markin makes carries a control group. Uplift is reported against that holdout, not against the customers who did not qualify.
  • Results are read over a full measurement window rather than in the first weeks, so novelty is not mistaken for effect.
  • Programmes that fail to beat control are retired automatically. Killing decisions that do not pay is part of the loop, not an annual review.
  • The one figure we quote about ourselves is a range, not an average: +17% to +35% ARPU on treated cohorts against a randomised holdout, across Markin deployments in large B2C bases. We publish no industry benchmark, because we could not source one we would be willing to defend. Your holdout is the number that matters.

Size it yourself

Size the decision layer above your Amplitude programme

Preloaded for a product-led consumer business running Amplitude at scale: rich behavioural analytics, a mature experimentation team, recommendations in personalisation. Amplitude observes behaviour and tests features; it does not size the commercial opportunity behind the behaviour or decide cross-channel actions in revenue terms. The figure below is the incremental margin available from turning those observations into per-customer revenue decisions, measured against a holdout, not a per-experiment significance read.

Your base

2.5M

Accounts that generated revenue in the last 30 days. Not registered users.

$16

Recurring plus non-recurring revenue divided by active customers.

58%

Margin on the next unit sold, not blended company margin.

Your programme today

40%

Consented, non-fatigued, reachable on at least one channel.

3%

Revenue lost to cancellations each month, as a share of the base.

The bet

$900K

Licences, data, incentives and the people running it.

3%

Before any incrementality haircut. 2–4% is a defensible planning assumption.

Verified annual impact

$1.4M

Net incremental gross margin in the central case, after the programme cost and after the share of decisioning programmes that independent research finds deliver no real lift.

Reported uplift

$5.8M

What a before/after dashboard would claim, with no control group.

Verified uplift

$4.0M

What survives a holdout in the central case.

Return on programme cost

2.6×

Payback

5 mo

If 20–40% of it does nothing

Best case · 20% no lift$1.8M
Central case · 30% no lift$1.4M
Worst case · 40% no lift$1.1M

What it takes to prove it

To detect a 3% lift on revenue per customer you need roughly 40K customers in the control arm, about 4.0% of your addressable base, read over at least 8 weeks, so novelty is not mistaken for effect.

Addressable base

1.0M

Revenue at risk from churn

$147.0M

Annualised, at the current monthly rate.

Open the full calculator, with the method behind it

Time to value

90 days to a number that survived a holdout.

No replatform, no data migration, no rebuild of the channels you already run. If the first cohorts do not beat control, nothing scales and you have lost a quarter, not a roadmap.

  1. Weeks 0–2

    Read the context you already have

    Markin connects to the data and the channels you run today, Amplitude included. No migration, no replatform, no new source of truth.

  2. Weeks 3–6

    First sized opportunities in test

    Opportunities are ranked by expected value, treatments are chosen per customer, and the first cohorts go live with a randomised holdout attached.

  3. Weeks 7–12

    First verified incremental revenue

    Results are read over a full measurement window. What beats control scales; what does not is retired. Nothing scales on a number that has not survived a holdout.

When you don’t need Markin.

  • You cannot connect a behavioural signal to a revenue outcome, so neither analytics nor decisions can be valued.
  • Your only actions are in-product feature rollouts with no commercial treatment or channel to act in.
  • Your base is small enough that the team can reason about every cohort by hand.

Questions buyers ask.

Doesn't Amplitude already have recommendations and experiments?

Yes. Amplitude Experiment runs feature experiments with sequential testing, and Recommendations uses AutoML to suggest items that maximise a predicted goal. Both optimise a metric or an engagement goal inside Amplitude. They do not size the revenue at stake per customer, choose a cross-channel treatment in margin-and-cost terms, or decide who to hold.

Do we have to replace Amplitude?

No. Amplitude remains the analytics and experimentation layer. Markin reads the signals Amplitude produces, turns them into sized revenue decisions, and hands them to the channels that can act on them.

How does the decision leave Amplitude?

As user attributes or triggered events on the profile, so engagement and lifecycle channels can key off them. Where a feature needs validation, the decision can also feed an Amplitude Experiment as targeting.

What is the difference between an Amplitude holdout and a Markin holdout?

An Amplitude holdout group measures the long-term combined lift of your experimentation program as a whole. A Markin holdout is attached to each commercial decision, so the reported number is the incremental revenue of that specific action, not a program-level average.

Who owns the output, product or growth?

Both. Product and analytics own the insight and the experiments; growth and data science own the revenue decision. The decision layer is the shared contract between them.

What does the first ninety days look like?

One revenue theme, one channel, a real holdout. The point of the first quarter is a defensible incremental number, not full coverage of every cohort.

How is Markin different from the decisioning or AI already inside Amplitude?

A decisioning engine ranks actions a human already defined, inside the campaign surface it was given. Markin forms the hypotheses itself, marketing, product, pricing or a technical anomaly holding growth back, sizes them, executes them inside Amplitude and your product surfaces, and reads each one against a randomised holdout. It behaves like a data science and growth team, not like an optimiser.

Does Markin only test messages and offers?

No. Anything a human growth scientist would investigate is in scope: onboarding friction, feature adoption, pricing and packaging, dunning, and technical health issues such as a checkout error rate or a broken deeplink quietly killing conversion. Marketing is one of four hypothesis domains, not the boundary.

What is the business case for adding Markin on top of Amplitude?

On the assumptions preloaded above, 2.5M customers at 16 a month, a small move in ARPU is a large number in absolute terms, because it applies to the whole installed base every month rather than to a campaign. Across Markin deployments the verified range on treated cohorts is +17% to +35% ARPU against a randomised holdout. The point is not more messages: it is finding the highest-value action per customer, launching it, and proving it against control before it scales.

How long before it pays for itself?

First sized opportunities are in test within six weeks and the first holdout-verified result lands inside 90 days. Payback depends on your base, margin and programme cost, the calculator on this page computes it from your own numbers, after applying the 20% to 40% haircut BCG finds when next-best-action programmes are incrementality-tested.