---
title: What is Hypothesis?
url: https://markin.ai/glossary/hypothesis
category: Markin vocabulary
---

# Hypothesis

> A hypothesis is a falsifiable statement linking an action to a revenue outcome for a defined population: if we do X for segment Y, metric Z moves by roughly N because of mechanism M. It is written before the experiment runs and is kept whether it is confirmed or refuted.

## Why it matters for ARPU

Hypotheses are the unit of learning in growth science. A team that writes them can compound knowledge across quarters; a team that ships tactics cannot explain why ARPU moved.

## Related terms

- [Signal](https://markin.ai/glossary/signal), A signal is an observed change in customer behaviour, product state, payment health or market context that carries information about future revenue.
- [Candidate action](https://markin.ai/glossary/candidate-action), A candidate action is one specific intervention eligible for one specific customer at one moment: an offer, a message, a price, a plan change, a support intervention or deliberately doing nothing.
- [Experiment](https://markin.ai/glossary/experiment), An experiment is a controlled release of a candidate action against a randomised holdout, sized in advance so the result can distinguish a real effect from noise.
- [Hypothesis provenance](https://markin.ai/glossary/hypothesis-provenance), Hypothesis provenance is the complete, inspectable chain behind a decision: which signals raised it, which analysis sized it, who or what wrote the hypothesis, which experiment tested it, and what the causal read-out was.

## Go deeper

- [Next best action marketing](https://markin.ai/blog/what-is-next-best-action), The pillar guide to per-customer, per-moment decisioning.
- [Opportunity feed and hypothesis provenance](https://markin.ai/blog/opportunity-feed-hypothesis-provenance), How a hypothesis is recorded end to end.

Source: https://markin.ai/glossary/hypothesis